Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-05T00:20:18

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) will be mainly at background levels to start, but is likely to increase from late on day 2 (6th), in response to elevated solar winds in association with coronal hole 40, spending progressively longer periods at moderate levels and possibly reaching High levels during diurnal peaks. The corresponding 24 hour electron fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during the forecast period, but is likely to exhibit an increasing trend during days 3 and 4 (7th and 8th).
The 3-day REFM forecast shows a low trend for days 1 and 2  (5th and 6th), which is good, but lacks the anticipated rise on day 3 (7th).The recurrence-persistence model has very low percentages, which is considered reasonable.