MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-29T00:00:03
The high energy electron forecast is of greater than average uncertainty for the period. This is due to significant changes between this rotation and the last in the succession of coronal holes expected to affect Earth's solar wind speed during the period. MOSWOC REFM is however signalling an upward trend later in the period, with an increasing chance of approaching or reaching the Active threshold, and this seems a reasonable overall guide.
The resultant 24-hour integrated fluence is therefore most likely to approach/reach Active levels on Day 4 (1st April).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-03-29T00:00:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |