MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-30T00:11:10
The high energy electron flux is likely to increase during the period under the influence of coronal holes in the southwest quadrant, but with some temporary redistributions later on day 1 (30th), and into day 2 due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity. Persistence flux and fluence values will be of limited use due to significantly smaller coronal hole features this time around.
Latest REFM data hints at a possible rising trend from day 2 (31st Mar), but this is not convincing. However, there remains an increasing chance of values nearing the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through the period once any early geomagnetic activity subsides.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-03-30T00:11:10 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |