Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-28T00:15:20

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16, increased to High levels between 27/1345UTC and 27/2130UTC, reaching a high of 1630 pfu at 27/1740UTC.  Flux levels have eased to Moderate. Peak values will continue declining gradually though the period and are not expected to breach the 1000pfy threshold. A more notable drop to background is expected with the arrival of the fast wind of CH28 on day 3 (2nd). 

The associated fluence is forecast to continue declining, likely remaining below the Active threshold, with only a slight chance of increasing above. This is supported by REFM, which also has a declining trend.