Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-01T00:25:33

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has been varying from background levels to high at diurnal peak. This has subsequently dropped out due to the recent solar sector boundary crossing (SSB), and likely to remain suppressed through day 1 (1st) due to the arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 28. A strong connection to this hole is anticipated, with flux levels rising again, possibly later day 1 and more likely through day 2 (2nd). By day 3 (3rd) onward mainly high flux is likely, although there is some notable uncertainty, as this will depend upon the strength of the connection to CH28.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence will start the period above the Active (1e9 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a declining trend, falling below this level through day 1 (1st). A further increase is then expected day 2 (2nd), perhaps above the Active threshold by the end of the day, and then persisting at this level day 3 onward. This rise is not currently captured by REFM, as a stronger fast wind connection is anticipated than persistence would suggest, and hence REFM is giving poor guidance beyond T+24.