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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-08T00:12:15

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is likely to be at mostly Moderate to High levels through the period, but with some reductions to background levels possible through Day 1 (8 March) due to any increase in geomagnetic activity, and perhaps more generally High levels from Day 2 (9 March). 

The corresponding 24-hour fluence likely to rise above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold again through the period, this perhaps most likely from Day 2 (9 March) when electron counts may remain more generally at high levels. Current REFM data, suggests an increasing trend towards active levels during the next few days.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2021-03-08T00:12:15
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 40% 1%
Day 2 70% 5%
Day 3 60% 5%
Day 4 50% 1%