MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-08T00:12:15
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is likely to be at mostly Moderate to High levels through the period, but with some reductions to background levels possible through Day 1 (8 March) due to any increase in geomagnetic activity, and perhaps more generally High levels from Day 2 (9 March).
The corresponding 24-hour fluence likely to rise above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold again through the period, this perhaps most likely from Day 2 (9 March) when electron counts may remain more generally at high levels. Current REFM data, suggests an increasing trend towards active levels during the next few days.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-03-08T00:12:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |