Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-06T00:21:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 is currently exhibiting a diurnal oscillation between at background to moderate values, as the ongoing effects of the fast wind of CH19 from a few days ago subsides. These are values are expected to drop to background with the arrival of the fast wind of CH22 either late day 1 or early day 2 (6th or 7th), before a likely increase thereafter. Moderate vales are expected, and perhaps peaking at high (greater than 1000 pfu) during days 3 and 4. 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and expected to persist at this level day 1 and most likely day 2, An increasing trend is expected by day 3 once any geomagnetic acitivty from the arrival of the fast wind of CH22 subsides. There is then a chance of the Active threshold being reached day 3 onward, although confidence is low. REFM is giving good guidance until T+24, but should be discounted beyond this, as the current indicated increase is not expected.