Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-07T00:16:55

There is an increasing risk of the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) reaching the high (1e3 pfu) threshold through the forecast period, in response to the current high speed stream. This will be during the diurnal peaks on each day.

Consequently 24 hour fluence levels are also forecast to follow a rising trend but are currently considered to likely to stay below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), however probabilities have been lifted higher and by Day 4 there is a 50% probability for the Active threshold to be reached.