MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-31T00:12:08
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to reach moderate levels through the diurnal cycle on day 1 (31st Dec) and perhaps day 2 (1st Jan) under waning high speed stream influences from coronal hole 09 as it moves into the west limb. However, a general trend to predominantly background levels is expected through the period.
24-hour electron fluence is forecast to remain well below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with values generally lower than current REFM data would suggest.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-12-31T00:12:08 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |