MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-01T00:14:54
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at largely moderate levels today (1st Jan) because of residual effects from the previous high speed stream from CH10, then reaching moderate levels through the peak of the diurnal cycles from day 2 (2nd Jan) onwards.
The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with values generally lower than current REFM data would suggest.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-01-01T00:14:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |