MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-02T00:00:29
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is likely to remain below the Active threshold, fluctuating between Moderate to Background levels. The potential for some enhanced geomagnetic activity on day 1 could also lead to a drop out in observed flux.
The associated fluence is forecast to remain below the Active threshold. REFM indicates an increasing trend, however model forecast values have diverged considerably from observed values through the 1st, leading to lowering confidence, with a significant rise not currently anticipated.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-12-02T00:00:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |