Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-02T00:12:52

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) saw a step-change downwards in its diurnal oscillation into the new month, helped by slightly increased geomagnetic activity in an otherwise unsupportive environment for high electron flux (in a slow solar wind regime).

Given the expected lack of fast solar wind regimes in the period from either CMEs or coronal holes, the new oscillation is expected to continue. This assumes a new equilibrium has already been established and the current low levels are not reflective of measuring a compression of the van Allen belts (in which case levels may rebound somewhat - this is the reason for slightly increased probabilities early in the week). Confidence in this should increase into day one, with fluence then expected to remain below Active throughout.