Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-03T00:10:40

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux has remained High throughout the past 24 hours, while the 24-hour integrated fluence has stayed Very Active. Earth is expected to transit a relatively uneventful sector of space in the coming four days, with no obvious mechanism to appreciably decrease electron populations in the van Allen belts. Active fluence is Expected throughout, however the Very Active threshold is more fickle, particularly considering the proximityof the current observations to the 1e9 integrated pfu threshold. On balance a very gradual exit is perhaps most likely, as suggested by REFM and the recurrence persistence model, although the speed of descent is felt to be overdone and perhaps based too heavily on lower fluence values from the previous rotation.