MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-10T00:01:45
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as observed by GOES-16, again peaked below the Active threshold on the 9th, 770 pfu at 09/1715UTC. With no sources of enhancement anticipated in the forecast, a gradual downward trend in peak values is now expected, with values varying between background levels and moderate levels.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain at normal background levels throughout with a gradual declining trend. This is supported by REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-10-10T00:01:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |