Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-11T00:02:11

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as observed by GOES-16, peaked just above the Active threshold, 1024 pfu at 10/1830UTC, a slight increase on the previous two days. However, with no sources of significant enhancement anticipated in the forecast, a slow downward trend in peak values is still expected. Values largely varying between background and moderate levels, with a chance of diurnally peaking near or just above the Active threshold on day 1 (11th).  

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain at normal background levels throughout. Although fluence levels rose slightly during 10th, an overall gradual declining trend is still anticipated through the period, which is supported by REFM.