MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-18T00:01:03
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels (below 1000 pfu). The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to persist well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.
This is supported by the latest REFM forecast model runs and the recurrence-persistence model throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-10-18T00:01:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |