Forecaster summary - Issued 2026-06-11T00:26:50

The GOES19 high-energy (>2MeV) electron flux GOES19 high energy (>2MeV) electron flux was mainly background to moderate, but briefly touched high levels, during the previous 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to persist at Background to Moderate levels at first, before becoming Moderate to High from day 2 (12 Jun). 

The associated electron fluence is expected to persist below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for days 1-2 (11-12 Jun) then increase from day 3 (13 Jun), with Active fluence expected by the end of the forecast period. The REFM model is considered to be giving good guidance, indicating that fluence increases to reach, or become close to, the Active threshold during day 3 (13J Jun).