Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-10T00:33:14

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue to reach high (1e3 pfu) levels on diurnal peaks through the next four days. Peaks are likely to show a steady decline in magnitude over the period, increasing becoming moderate by day 4.

24 hour electron fluence, is showing a steady decline as demonstrated by the REFM model. A fall below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is anticipated on day 1. Forecast probabilities take into account the REFM model forecasts, combined with current flux trends and reflect the fact that the decline in fluence may be slowed by high peaks in flux observations.