Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-11T00:22:10

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) observed by GOES-16 has oscillated between moderate and high levels since the 5th August. This is expected to continue for much of the period, albeit with a declining trend. Mainly moderate values are expected day 3 (13th Aug) onward. No further enhancements are forecast during this period.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is currently above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with a gradually decreasing trend. This is likely to fall below the Active threshold late on day 1, but potentially early day 2. REFM is currently reducing fluence values too quickly, and should be discounted.