MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-18T00:26:40
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to continue to cycle through moderate and background levels through days 1 and 2. Heightened geomagnetic activity on day 3 and 4 is then likely to lead to mainly background values.
24-hour electron fluence values are at steady levels and are expected to continue this way through days 1 and 2. A declining trend is then forecast on days 3 and 4, staying well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-08-18T00:26:40 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |