MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-19T00:24:29
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to remain at mainly background levels, perhaps reaching moderate levels on diurnal peaks. The high speed stream from coronal hole 61 is forecast to become geoeffective on day 2, which could lead to a subsequent increase in electron flux levels.
Corresponding electron fluence levels are forecast to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but perhaps with an increasing trend through days 3 and 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-07-19T00:24:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |