MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-26T00:29:53
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), is currently at background levels. Mainly background levels are likely to continue through day 1 due to recent heightened geomagnetic activity. Background to moderate levels are then forecast on days 2 to 4, but with an increasing chance of reaching high (1e3pfu) levels on days 3 and 4 during diurnal peaks due to a coronal hole high speed stream from coronal hole 63.
Corresponding 24 hour electron fluence levels are starting to show a response to increased flux levels over recent days. Following any connection to the high speed stream there is a slight but increasing chance that the fluence may approach or just exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by day 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-07-26T00:29:53 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |