MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-27T00:20:48
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to remain at mainly background to moderate levels, but could approach high (1e3) levels later in the period depending on the magnitude of the coronal hole high speed streams.
Corresponding 24 hour electron fluence levels are expected to start at background levels but could approach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by day 4 (30 Jul) depending on the flux increases.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-07-27T00:20:48 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |