MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-03T00:29:46
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to increase now that the CH HSS from CH64/- has become established. As flux levels increase, the high threshold (1e3 pfu) may be reached on diurnal peaks from day 2 (04 Aug).
Corresponding 24-hour electron fluence values are well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and are forecast to remain below this level but with a rising trend. There is a chance that electron fluence may reach the Active threshold from day 3 once geomagnetic activity decreases.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-08-03T00:29:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |