Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-04T00:01:17

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to continue its current pattern of background flux with moderate peaks at first, with the possibility of an increase during the period.

A high speed stream from coronal hole 55 is most likely to reach Earth either later on Day 2 or early on Day 3 (05 or 06 July). The increased wind speed may cause an increase in the diurnal peak of the electron flux to high levels. If the increase in electron flux occurs, an increase in the associated electron fluence will be seen, with a breach of the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold possible on Days 3 and 4 (06 and 07 July).

However on the last rotation the increased wind speed from this coronal hole saw very little electron response, so there is some uncertainty in this aspect. Due to the fact the increase did not occur on the last rotation, the recurrence-persistence model is showing very low probabilities of an increase in fluence, and the REFM model is also keeping fluence levels low.