Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-11T00:01:06

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to stay at mainly background to moderate levels through the next few days, although there is a chance of approaching high levels (1e3pfu) on Days 2 through 4 (12 to 14 July), should the Earth connect strongly to any of several upcoming coronal hole high speed streams. This however may be moderated by any periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity.

Corresponding electron fluence values are currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. There may be a rising trend, if electron flux levels respond to the increase in solar wind speeds. Recent solar wind increases have not seen much electron response however. Therefore although a rise in electron fluence values is possible, there is only a very slight chance of reaching the Active threshold.