Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-10T00:10:47

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has continued to display the same pattern of background flux with moderate peaks and this trend is unlikely to change for much of the forecast period. However, later in the period the flux is likely to become predominantly moderate. Consequently the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to increase slightly, but still remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).

The REFM also indicates that the fluence will remain well below the Active threshold, and this is accepted. The recurrence-persistence model shows a small-scale gradual increase from 1 to 4%, which is possibly slightly under-estimated yet still indicates that the fluence is expected to remain far below the Active threshold.