Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-03T00:02:14

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to be predominantly at background levels until day 3 (5th,) but more probable day 4 (6th), when the flux is likely to increase to moderate levels under the influence of the high speed stream from CH55. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is still  expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, albeit with a slight increasing trend through day 4. This is supported by both the REFM forecast and 27-day recurrence model.