Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-09T00:01:14

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has continued to display the same pattern of background flux with moderate peaks and this trend is unlikely to change. Consequently the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The REFM is considered volatile and not trustworthy at the moment, due to its inability to handle this unusual lack of electrons. The recurrence-persistence model is felt to be more realistic, with its small-scale gradual increase from 1 to 5%, though perhaps underplayed.