Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-10T00:29:17

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO observed by GOES-16 has oscillated between moderate and high levels through the last 24 hours. This pattern is expected to continue through the next two days, albeit with a declining trend with mainly moderate values expected from day 2 onward.

Corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is currently above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). A gradual decay of electron flux is forecast with the fluence expected to remain above the Active threshold through day 1and is likely to stay above into day 2, exceeding REFM expectations. There is an increasing likelihood of the fluence falling to moderate levels at times on day 3 and 4.