MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-12T00:25:03
High energy electron flux levels (greater than 2MeV) are expected to be at mainly moderate levels, perhaps reaching high (1e3pfu) levels on diurnal peaks from day 2 onward, should the Earth connect strongly with a high speed stream. However any increases will be subject to enhancements in geomagnetic activity.
Corresponding electron fluence levels are forecast to follow a slightly rising trend as a result of any strong high speed stream connections. However electron fluence is unlikely to reach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu),
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-07-12T00:25:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |