MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-06-12T00:07:00
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels. There may be an increase in electron counts due to the recent slightly elevated solar wind speeds, most likely up to moderate levels at the peak of the diurnal cycle. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore likely to show an increasing trend, but is not currently expected to exceed the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), as reflected by the REFM model and also the 27-day recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-06-12T00:07:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |