MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-06-13T00:11:09
Over the coming days, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue predominantly at background levels, with diurnal peaks possibly reaching moderate levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), which is strongly supported by REFM and the 27-day recurrence-persistence model.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-06-13T00:11:09 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |