Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-13T00:04:04

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16, is likely to remain at background levels through the period. There is, however, a chance of a brief period of Moderate flux levels developing later on day one or into day two (13/14 July), in response the connection to the fast wind from coronal hole 57. This is low confidence due to the similarities with the previous southern extension on 04/05 July, and the lack of electron response observed on that occasion.

The associated 24-hour high energy electron fluence is forecast to remain below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with REFM currently giving good guidance.