Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-14T00:00:26

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16, is likely to remain at background levels through the period. There is, however, a chance of a brief period of Moderate flux levels developing later day one, Tuesday 14 July and perhaps into Wednesday 15 July, in response the overdue connection to the fast wind from coronal hole 57. The chances of this occurring are now reduced, and it is becoming increasingly likely that the current background diurnal oscillation in flux may persist throughout.

The associated 24-hour high energy electron fluence is forecast to remain below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with REFM currently giving good guidance.