Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-13T00:01:07

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has oscillated between moderate and high levels since the 5th August. However, observations through the 12th have shown a downward trend to Normal background to Moderate levels, after initially starting the period just above the 1000pfu theshold. A further gradual reduction in flux levels are likely in the coming days.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence was initially just above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but has been on a sustained downward trend since 12/0900UTC, when dropping below the Active threshold. REFM is under-estimating fluence values, but the downward trend is accepted as good guidance.