Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-12T00:19:47

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has oscillated between moderate and high levels since the 5th August. Whilst a gradual decay in flux levels has been anticipated, this process has taken notably longer than originally expected. This means that there is the potential for this oscillation to continue for much of the period, with further periods of high throughout, although the confidence for the longevity of these decreases significantly by day 3.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is currently just above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This has been gradually declining close to the threshold, but a recent increase has prolonged the forecast Active period until later day 1 (12th), with a chance of continuing into day 2 (13th). REFM is currently reducing fluence values too quickly, and should be discounted.