Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-05T00:01:52

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background to moderate levels and this is initially likely to remain so in the strong high speed stream. There is likely to be a significant input of electrons into the radiation belts, but the fast solar wind may be compressing the belts away from the orbit of GOES-16 at GEO. As the solar wind declines the flux observations are expected to show a marked uplift, and recent observations are showing this, with an increased chance of the high (1e3 pfu) level being reached during the diurnal maximum on each day. 

In the presence of increasing flux, the corresponding 24 hour electron fluence values are expected to rise sharply, with an increasing likelihood of reaching or exceeding the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold from day 2 (6th). However, peak levels are uncertain.