MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-29T00:07:00
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 has seen some more persistent spells at moderate levels over the past few days, due to slightly enhanced solar wind speeds under coronal hole influences. These may continue to start the period, but predominantly background wind speeds are expected through the next four days, with no significant enhancements to electron counts.
Resultant high energy (greater than 2 MeV) 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, as suggested by latest MOSWOC REFM output.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-07-29T00:07:00 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |