Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-28T00:13:04

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 has persisted at Background to Moderate values, and is expected to remain at these levels through the coming 4 days. This is despite the potential for some solar wind enhancements from Earth encountering the fast wind of either small coronal openings on the northwest visible disc, or the more definitive southward extended polar crown coronal hole. Any enhancement from these is not expected to be sufficient to significantly increase electron populations at GEO, although it is possible that flux levels could approach the 1000 pfu alert level later on day 3.

Despite these potential increases in flux the associated high energy (greater than 2 MeV) 24 hour fluence is expected to remain at background levels, and below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is broadly in agreement with REFM, although levels are likely to be rising slightly, as opposed to the gradual declined indicated.