MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-06-28T00:21:42
With no sources of sustained enhancement forecast in the solar wind over the coming four days, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as measured by GOES-16, is expected to remain at normal background to moderate levels.
The corresponding 24-hour integrated electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, with this assessment supported by the REFM forecast and the 27-day recurrence model.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-06-28T00:21:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |