MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-29T00:16:42
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to stay at background levels through most of the forecast period. It may reach moderate levels at times during the diurnal cycle from day 3 (31st), due to potential occasional weak coronal hole high speed stream influence. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is forecast to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), this is confirmed by the REFM and the 27-recurrence outputs.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-29T00:16:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |