MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-30T00:04:02
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to stay at background levels through the forecast period. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is forecast to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is confirmed by the REFM forecast and the 27 day recurrence. The recurrence-persistence model gives probabilities in the low single figure range (1% to 4%) through the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-30T00:04:02 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |