MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-30T00:20:01
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to stay at normal background levels over the next 4 days, with a chance of reaching moderate levels on diurnal peaks. The possible CME arrival on 01 May would result in a sharp decline, with an increase through days 3 and 4 (02 and 03 May). The Corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is therefore expected to continue below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) but may begin to rise later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-04-30T00:20:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |