MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-05-07T00:23:03
The high energy electron flux is generally expected to remain at background levels, but may reach moderate levels during diurnal peaks. On day 4, flux values may begin to increase, if there is significant enhancement in the solar wind from coronal hole 36. Please see comments in the Geomagnetic Storms section regarding low confidence on this feature.
The corresponding electron fluence values are currently at background levels and are expected to remain well below the Active threshold (>1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the forecast period, in line with the Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-05-07T00:23:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |