MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-04-07T00:29:17
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is generally expected to remain well below the 1000 pfu (High) level, although an increase may begin to occur late on day 4 (10th). The associated 24-hour electron fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active threshold (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the period. This low trend is supported by REFM and 27-day recurrence, both of which are considered to be giving good guidance at present.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-04-07T00:29:17 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |