Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-31T00:22:43

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 is currently at or near background levels. This is expected to gradually climb during day 1 (31st) and day 2 (1st) due to the increased geomagnetic activity from the recent arrival of the fast wind of CH24/-, once the initial geomagnetic activity subsides. This is expected to lead to a High electron flux level developing (greater than 1000 pfu), which is then likely to persist throughout much of the period, albeit with decreasing confidence by day 4 (3rd).

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is therefore also expected to also rise in response. With a sufficiently elevated flux, fluence levels are expected to rise above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level by the end of day 2 (1st). This is significantly higher than what would be suggested by REFM beyond T+24 and other 27-day-recurrence based models, as this period of enhanced solar winds was not observed on the previous rotation. Consequently at these lead times. these models should be discounted on this occasion,