Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-03-30T00:21:05

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at or near background levels. Increasing solar winds, from the arrival of the fast wind from coronal hole 24 will lead to high energy electron fluxes rising on day 2 (31st) and 3 (1st). These are expected to reach the alert (1000 pfu) threshold, becoming mainly high on days 3 and 4 (2nd).

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is therefore also expected to rise in response. This is likely to exceed the Active threshold by day 3, and continue into day 4. Whilst confidence is low, exceeding the threshold is considered slightly more likely than not, at this stage, and hence the 60% risk. 

This low confidence is due to both the REFM, and other statistical-recurrence based models currently not providing valuable information at this stage. This is due to these having a dependence on the 27-day persistence, especially by day 3. However the current forecast solar winds are very different to those that were observed on the previous rotation.