Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-29T00:26:25

Due to the current weak high speed stream, and the expected arrival tomorrow or early day 2 (1st March) of a further slight enhancement in the solar wind from fragmented coronal hole 18, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) measured by GOES-16 is expected to remain at moderate to high levels, with peaks above 1000 pfu Alert threshold during the diurnal cycles. The corresponding 24-hour fluence will respond accordingly, with an increasing chance of rising above the Active threshold through the period.

This increasing trend is not supported by the REFM forecast, although the model guidance of keeping fluence levels below the Active threshold is accepted. The recurrence-persistence model has percentages of 7 to 15 percent for Days 2 to 4.