Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-02-28T00:04:47

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to continue its current behaviour of mainly Moderate flux (100-1000pfu) in the near-term. The probabilities of this shifting to High diurnal peaks should increase in the second half of the four-day period, as a result of potentially becoming affected by CH18 and any northward extension of the southern polar coronal hole.

Both the REFM forecast and 27-day recurrence suggest the fluence should remain below the Active threshold. Typical probabilities are given as 10 to 15 percent by the Recurrence-Persistence model for Days 2 to 4. The preferred forecast is for a more reactive increase over the same period: i.e. initially lower, and later marginally higher probabilities than these models suggest into the new week, due to the possibility of a weak connection between CH18 and the southern crown, and Earth's being slightly further south (relative to the solar equator) this pass.